In a recent analysis presented by Altcoin Daily, global macro investor Raoul Pal laid out a provocative thesis: the now-familiar Bitcoin four-year cycle has stretched into a five-year cycle. This shift, Pal argues, is not some mystical change in market psychology but a direct consequence of macroeconomic plumbing — specifically, how debt maturities and the business cycle (measured by the ISM PMI) are unfolding. The video blends macroeconomic insight with actionable takes on Bitcoin and several altcoins. This article distills those ideas, explains the reasoning, and highlights what it means for traders and long-term holders alike.

Outline

• Introduction to Raoul Pal’s thesis
• ISM PMI and the business cycle: why it matters for Bitcoin
• How extended debt maturities shifted a 4-year cycle into a 5-year cycle
• Rates, liquidity, and the path to a bull market
• Practical implications: buy the dips and why bottom ranges matter
• Altcoin updates: BitTensor (TAO) fund, Sui’s Google partnership, and BORG buybacks
• Actionable takeaways and guidance for investors
• Conclusion

Raoul Pal’s core thesis: the four-year cycle has become a five-year cycle

Raoul Pal, a respected macro investor, makes a simple but powerful point: Bitcoin’s oft-cited four-year cycle — historically tied to halvings — is actually a manifestation of broader macroeconomic forces. These forces are best captured by the ISM purchasing managers index (PMI), which tracks business sentiment and activity. When the ISM is above 50, the economy is expanding; below 50, it’s contracting. Bitcoin’s price behavior, Pal argues, tracks these macro cycles more closely than it does any purely crypto-native rhythm.

“It is always the business cycle, stupid,” Pal emphasizes. The argument is that investors should focus on the ISM and the path of interest rates, not just arbitrary calendared cycles.

In Pal’s view, the recent deviation from the expected four-year pattern is explainable by a single, concrete change in the macro landscape: an extension of the effective maturity of US debt during 2021–2022, which pushed out the cycle by roughly a year.

ISM PMI and Bitcoin: why the business cycle drives crypto

The ISM PMI is a leading indicator often used as a proxy for the business cycle. Pal points out that Bitcoin doesn’t move in isolation — it responds to the same forces that drive Main Street and corporate balance sheets. Historically, periods where the ISM was below 50 were times when Bitcoin consolidated and set up for future runs. Conversely, expansions in the ISM correlated with broader risk-on behavior.

Key points:

• The ISM above 50 signals economic expansion and typically precedes stronger liquidity conditions for risk assets.
• When the ISM is below 50, economic activity is contracting, and risk assets including Bitcoin can languish or trade sideways.
• Bitcoin’s price action has historically mirrored these expansions and contractions, making macro readings essential for timing.

Why debt maturity matters: the four-year becomes five

Pal’s distinctive insight is that the average weighted maturity of US government debt directly impacts the cadence of the business cycle. During 2021–2022, policies and market conditions led to an extension of maturities — effectively stretching the timing of debt rollovers and the related liquidity cycles.

This extension changed the timing of when liquidity is injected or withdrawn from the system. If, historically, the average debt maturity implied a ~4-year rhythm of liquidity renewal and cyclical peaks, lengthening that maturity naturally pushes the peak further out. Pal quantifies this shift: the cycle moved from roughly four years to approximately 5.4 years in his model, implying the new peak may arrive in 2026, most likely around Q2.

Interest rates, liquidity, and the road to a bull market

Interest rates are the lever that policy makers and markets use to manage liquidity and the cost of rolling debt. Pal notes that high rates have squeezed Main Street while assets on Wall Street have benefited from monetary debasement over prior cycles. The key to restoring broader expansion is lower rates, which facilitate refinancing and reduce the drag of debt servicing.

Pal’s timeline rests on two linked ideas:

1. Debt needs to be rolled at lower rates to reduce financial strain and unlock liquidity.
2. The timing of those rollovers — driven by debt maturity profiles — shifts the business cycle and therefore the timing of peak liquidity and risk-on behavior.

Until rates come down and refinancing occurs at more favorable levels, Pal expects ISM readings to stay subdued, which in turn keeps Bitcoin range-bound. But once the rate-of-change in ISM turns positive and liquidity momentum builds, the market should begin a meaningful ascent toward the next cycle peak.

Buy the dips: what these macro views mean for traders and HODLers

Despite the measured tone, Pal and the show’s host converge on a practical stance: dips during these sub-50 ISM periods have historically been excellent entry points. The argument is not for blind averaging in forever, but for recognizing that:

• When the ISM is in contraction, Bitcoin’s lower ranges have historically offered asymmetric upside over the ensuing expansion.
• Buying into the support ranges — the “bottom ranges” Pal mentions — is a tactical approach consistent with past cycles.
• Patience is required: if the macro schedule has been pushed out to 2026, then those who want to maximize returns should maintain a long-term view and use pullbacks to accumulate.

Altcoin updates: BitTensor (TAO) fund, Sui’s Google partnership, and SwissBorg’s BORG

Alongside the macro narrative, the host covered several altcoin developments that matter for investors looking beyond Bitcoin.

BitTensor (TAO) and new fund

A prominent podcast host launched a fund focused on BitTensor’s TAO and associated subnet alpha tokens via Still Core Capital. BitTensor is positioned as an AI-native protocol, with multiple high-potential subnets already operating.

Notable subnet examples mentioned:

• Subnet 64: Hosts popular AI models and claims to run at roughly one-sixteenth the cost of comparable cloud providers (per the clip’s claim).
• Subnet 11 (dippy): A subnet reportedly with 8 million iOS users powering AI companion apps — an indication of consumer-level traction.
• Subnet 33 (Ready AI): Positioned as a BitTensor analogue to Scale AI, the subnet is led by experienced operators with past exits and institutional credibility.

The takeaway: institutional and semi-institutional capital is starting to chase AI-focused crypto projects that deliver real compute and developer utility. That’s a structural narrative that could matter once macro liquidity improves.

Sui partnership with Google and agentic commerce

Sui is highlighted as a chain uniquely positioned for an agent-driven future of commerce. The core pitch:

• Sui’s architecture enables batch transfers that are atomic and effectively instant — capabilities that matter for agentic payments and high-throughput commerce use cases.
• Sui announced a partnership with Google on an agentic payments framework (AP2), positioning it to handle automated agent transactions in a world where AI agents conduct a growing share of online activity.
• The team emphasises building creator-first protocols to preserve value for content creators in an environment where content scraping and centralization have eroded creator monetization.

For investors, Sui’s combination of technical primitives (instant, atomic batch transfers) and partnerships with big tech signal a practical road to adoption in merchant and agentic ecosystems.

SwissBorg and BORG buybacks

SwissBorg’s community token BORG is being supported by an aggressive buyback mechanism tied to platform fees. According to the analysis:

• SwissBorg allocates a substantial portion of trading fees to token buybacks. In recent weeks that number has been cited near 50% for some trading flows.
• Using recent statistics, 50% of platform fees translated into approximately $400,000 weekly buy pressure, $1.6 million monthly, and roughly $20 million annualized.
• Given current liquidity and price impact, that level of buy pressure could theoretically move BORG 50% in a single week.

That said, markets change rapidly, and the eventual effect depends on trading volumes, liquidity depth, and whether fee-derived buybacks scale as user activity increases. Still, the tokenomics align user activity with buy pressure — a bullish design in the right market environment.

Actionable takeaways and investor guidance

Bringing together Pal’s macro thesis and the altcoin developments, readers should consider a few practical guidelines:

1. Macro-first mindset: Use ISM readings and rate expectations as a primary filter for portfolio allocation timing. When ISM remains below 50, expect consolidation and use dips to accumulate selectively.
2. Expect timing shifts: Don’t be dogmatic about fixed cycle calendars. The real-world debt maturity profile can and did change the timing of macro liquidity cycles.
3. Focus on utility in altcoins: Projects delivering real-world compute, AI infrastructure, or payments utility (BitTensor, Sui) deserve attention now, but the macro environment will dictate when capital chases those narratives aggressively.
4. Tokenomic edge: Tokens with built-in buyback mechanics tied to platform fundamentals (like BORG) can amplify price moves in the right environment. Monitor fee growth and liquidity depth before sizing positions.
5. Maintain patience: If Pal’s timeline is right, the liquidity peak and cycle top could arrive in 2026. That’s a horizon for strategic position sizing and risk management, not an excuse for panic or recklessness.

Conclusion

Raoul Pal’s argument reframes a familiar crypto talking point — the halving-driven four-year cycle — into a macro story about debt maturities, rates, and the business cycle as measured by the ISM PMI. The practical implication is clear: markets can and do get rescheduled by macro realities. If debt maturities extended during 2021–2022, the whole cycle shifts outward, and investors should adjust both expectations and time horizons accordingly.

At the same time, the host highlighted tangible altcoin developments that reflect ongoing innovation: BitTensor’s AI subnets gaining attention and institutional capital, Sui positioning itself for an agentic payments future with Google, and SwissBorg’s tokenomics that translate platform activity into buy pressure. These are the types of projects that could outperform once macro liquidity turns up.

For investors, the best approach is disciplined: watch macro indicators like the ISM and interest rate trajectories, use dips in this macro-constrained environment to accumulate quality positions, and focus on projects that deliver fundamental utility. If Pal is correct, the patient and prepared will likely find the next big leg of the crypto bull market in 2026.