Bitcoin enthusiasts and investors have a new reason to be excited — a fascinating correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the global M2 money supply suggests that Bitcoin could soar to over $220,000 by July. This prediction, while bold, is backed by compelling data and analysis that reveal how Bitcoin’s price movements are deeply intertwined with the amount of money circulating globally.

In this article, we will dive into the details of this correlation, explore why global liquidity has recently exploded, and discuss what this could mean for Bitcoin’s future. We’ll also address some data anomalies that have surfaced and what you should keep in mind as you consider the outlook for Bitcoin in 2025.

Understanding the Global M2 Money Supply and Bitcoin

To grasp why Bitcoin’s price might skyrocket, we need to first understand what the global M2 money supply is. M2 refers to the total amount of money in an economy, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. When we talk about the global M2 money supply, we’re referring to the combined money supply across major economies such as the United States, Eurozone, China, India, and others.

Historically, Bitcoin has shown an over 80% correlation with the global M2 money supply. This means that when the global economy sees an increase in liquidity—more money being printed or injected into the system—Bitcoin tends to absorb some of that liquidity, causing its price to rise. Conversely, when the global economy contracts and liquidity tightens, Bitcoin’s price often falls.

This correlation is not instantaneous. Data suggests there is roughly an 84-day lag (about 12 weeks) between changes in the M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price reaction. This lag accounts for the time it takes for new money to flow into assets like Bitcoin.

By analyzing this lag and current M2 data, we can forecast Bitcoin’s price movements with surprising accuracy. For example, when the M2 money supply increases significantly, Bitcoin’s price tends to follow suit a few months later.

The Craziest Chart in All of Crypto: Fact or Fiction?

One of the most eye-opening charts in the cryptocurrency world compares Bitcoin’s price history with the global M2 money supply, adjusted for the 84-day lag. This chart shows how closely Bitcoin has tracked the global liquidity trend since its inception.

Recently, the global M2 money supply experienced a dramatic spike, leading to predictions that Bitcoin could surge past $220,000 by July 2025. But before getting too excited, it’s important to understand the context and nuances behind this data.

Why Has Global Liquidity Exploded Despite Trade Wars and Tariffs?

At first glance, it seems contradictory that global liquidity would be expanding when the world is grappling with trade wars, tariffs, and economic uncertainty. However, it’s crucial to remember that this is a global measure, not limited to just one country like the United States.

While the Federal Reserve in the U.S. has been cautious—avoiding rate cuts and quantitative easing this year—many other countries are actively printing money, lowering interest rates, and stimulating their economies to counteract the negative effects of global trade tensions. This collective increase in liquidity across multiple economies drives the overall global M2 money supply upward.

Looking back to the period after former President Trump’s election, the global M2 actually declined for a while, despite optimistic market sentiment. This decline was a subtle warning that the economy might face headwinds. Bitcoin’s price, following the M2 trend with a lag, reflected this by undergoing a correction shortly after.

Historical Accuracy of the Bitcoin-M2 Correlation

Since September 2023, Bitcoin has tracked the global M2 money supply with about a 70 to 84-day lag. This correlation predicted a 20-25% correction in Bitcoin’s price even while the price was rallying, which indeed materialized. It also accurately forecasted the roughly 30% correction early in 2025.

Today, the M2 data (represented in orange on the chart) has already factored in recent liquidity increases. Based on the lag, this suggests Bitcoin’s price is poised to climb significantly in the coming months.

What Caused the Recent Spike in Global M2 Money Supply?

The most recent massive spike in the global M2 chart data caught many analysts by surprise. Upon investigation, it was discovered that this spike originated from a change in the M2 data reported by a single country: India.

India’s M2 money supply data suddenly jumped by nearly ten times in a very short period, which is highly unusual and suspicious. This kind of jump is unlikely to represent genuine money printing or liquidity injection because such a major event would have made headlines worldwide.

Possible Explanations for India’s M2 Anomaly

• Data glitch or error: The sudden spike could be a technical error in the data reporting or a bug in the data source used by platforms like TradingView.
• Change in calculation methodology: India might have altered how it calculates or reports M2 money supply, causing an artificial jump in the numbers.
• Misplaced decimal point: The near-perfect 10x increase hints at a possible decimal shift, which is a common data entry or formatting mistake.

Until more information is available, it’s prudent to treat this spike with caution and not take it at face value as a sign of massive liquidity injection from India.

Adjusting the Data: What Happens When India’s M2 Is Removed?

To test the impact of India’s anomaly, we can remove India’s M2 data from the global aggregate. The corrected global M2 chart still shows a strong upward trend, confirming that other countries are indeed increasing liquidity through money printing, rate cuts, or stimulus measures.

Even without India’s contribution, the data suggests Bitcoin could reach at least $150,000 by the end of July 2025, assuming the correlation holds. This reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s price is fundamentally tied to global liquidity trends, not just isolated incidents.

What Could Invalidate This Correlation?

While the Bitcoin-to-global M2 correlation is compelling, it is not immune to disruption. Certain macroeconomic or geopolitical events could derail this relationship in the short term:

• Sudden global crises: Events like a military conflict involving major powers (e.g., China attacking Taiwan) could inject fear and uncertainty into markets, causing unpredictable price movements.
• Major policy shifts: Unexpected changes in monetary policy, such as aggressive rate hikes or liquidity withdrawals, could break the trend.
• Market sentiment shocks: Large-scale market panics or crashes could temporarily override fundamental correlations.

However, even during turbulent times, the long-term trend between Bitcoin and global liquidity tends to reassert itself. For example, during the 2020 pandemic crash, short-term events caused price volatility, but the overall upward trend driven by increasing M2 money supply remained intact.

Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Given the current data and trends, the outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. If the global M2 money supply continues to expand, Bitcoin could see substantial gains in the coming months, potentially surpassing $150,000 and even reaching $220,000 by July 2025.

As always, it’s important to stay informed and consider multiple perspectives. Analysts such as Raoul Pal from Real Vision and Colin Talks Crypto have popularized this Bitcoin-M2 liquidity correlation, providing valuable insights for investors.

For those interested in deepening their crypto knowledge and staying ahead of market trends, engaging with trusted sources and communities is essential. Events like the largest Bitcoin conference in the world offer excellent opportunities to learn, network, and hear from industry experts.

Final Thoughts

The relationship between Bitcoin and the global M2 money supply is one of the most fascinating and potentially profitable insights in crypto investing today. While data anomalies like India’s recent M2 spike warrant caution, the broader trend of increasing global liquidity supports a bullish case for Bitcoin’s price.

Investors should watch the global M2 data closely, consider the lag effect, and remain alert to macroeconomic events that could impact this correlation. With the right approach and timing, Bitcoin’s next major price surge could be just around the corner.

Remember, no prediction is guaranteed, and crypto markets are inherently volatile. Always do your own research and invest responsibly.

Stay informed, stay curious, and keep an eye on the craziest chart in all of crypto.